[ale] Disappointed in the recent climate research hack

Fri Nov 27 12:45:25 EST 2009

All,

I've continued to try and read about the "climategate" emails and
source code release.

This CBS article seems to be surprisingly well done for a mass media report.

http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2009/11/24/taking_liberties/entry5761180.shtml

Much of that article is discussing the release of CRU source code (it
was CRU that had the unauthorized release).  As I understand it the
CRU global temperature series  is 1 of 3 "respected" temperature
series reconstructions.  And if you read "Harry's" comments as he
works on the code, he is very frustrated with the lack of quality in
the data and code that he is working with.  This is the very code and
data that is providing a third of the support for global warming.

Note that the CRU code has apparently never been released previously
for per review.  So the "embargo" process may apply to US based
research but it was apparently not followed at CRU.  Given that CRU
was one of the major drivers of the IPCC reports which in turn has
been the most relied upon report of global warming, it is all very
troubling.  At least to me it is troubling.

I sincerely hope one of the major results of this process is that
source code, raw data, and data adjustments be opened up for public
access.  Agreed, it does not have to happen immediately, but much of
the code, data, and adjustments that were leaked are years old.

FYI: The "hide the decline" comment is not a decline in measured
temps.  It is a decline in temp that one would get if just using tree
rings as a guide.  Apparently tree ring analysis would show the world
about half a degree colder than it really is for the last 50 years.
(Remember the entire global warming to date is just 7 10ths of a
degree since 1850, so a half degree is a huge discrepancy.  You may
think tree ring analysis is unimportant now that we have thermometers,
but the infamous "hockey stick" temperature chart that covers the last
1000 years is primarily derived from tree ring analysis.  So if tree
ring analysis can routinely have .5 degree errors, then it is pretty
useless for trying to recreate historical temperatures.  The hockey
stick analysis in particular show\s just 2 or 3 tenths of a degree in
variation from 1000 to 1850, and then a 7 tenth degree increase since
then.

Greg

On Mon, Nov 23, 2009 at 2:25 PM, Greg Freemyer <greg.freemyer at gmail.com> wrote:
> Jim,
>
> I hope you're right about the embargo process, but the one only chunk
> of source code I saw a reference to was supposedly 1999 code.  So if
> the embargo is 10 years it is ridiculous.  6 or 12 months would be
> fine.
>
> The few emails I seen quoted were also 10 year old emails, but I am
> not saying I think those should be public.  It is the source code to
> the models and the data they are using that I think should be handled
> under an open license of some sort.
>
> Greg
>
> On Mon, Nov 23, 2009 at 2:03 PM, Jim Kinney <jim.kinney at gmail.com> wrote:
>> I have a bit of insight into the research data issue (brother-in-law
>> works in the field that had the data loss):
>>
>> The data when first generated/collected is held in an embargo for a
>> period of time. This time period varies but is often for 6 months to
>> one year. This is done to allow time for the research team who did the
>> work to collect it to also do the work to to write it up and present
>> it. It's pretty much a "geek cred" thing. It also allows time to do a
>> proper analysis to make sure that the data is not flawed in some way
>> _before_ it's made public.
>>
>> During the embargo time, the researches with access to the data are
>> not allowed to discuss the initial findings or disperse data copies.
>>
>> Once the embargo period is over, the data is made fully available
>> along with the research findings and all the supporting papers.
>>
>> Science does not (and probably should not) work on a release early,
>> release often process.
>>
>> So the unauthorized data access was of embargo'ed data. Without having
>> the details of the collection methodology, it is not possible to draw
>> any valid conclusions from. That's why the researchers spend so long
>> to do the writeups. They have to explain why certain data is not valid
>> (hard) and other data is valid (very hard) and why their conclusion is
>> what it is (extremely hard).
>>
>> The schmuck who broke in had an agenda. He (most likely "he") has an
>> axe to grind and no understanding of the research process or why it is
>> done the way it is. So now that incomplete data set will be "outed"
>> and be used to "justify" his cause. It will have little impact on the
>> actual research but will likely have great influence on the
>> scientifically illiterate congress critters.
>>
>>
>> On Mon, Nov 23, 2009 at 1:25 PM, Greg Freemyer <greg.freemyer at gmail.com> wrote:
>>> All,
>>>
>>> Not sure everyone knows but a major climate research center was hacked
>>> recently and in addition to 1000 emails or so, some of their source
>>> code was published!
>>>
>>> In this age of OPEN research and government funding, why wasn't that
>>> code OPEN in the first place?
>>>
>>> I don't care which side of the Global Warming debate you sit on, we
>>> should all feel it is to important to have the modeling code be
>>> published under a GPL (or similar license) and available for peer
>>> review.
>>>
>>> If one of you knows of the "best' license for this kind of use I want
>>> to contact my senator and congressman and tell them we need
>>> legislation that all federally funded climate change research should
>>> have both the data and the software models released to the public!
>>>
>>> I encourage all OSS advocates to do the same.  This seems like an
>>> issue the requires a OSS philosophy more that any other I can think
>>> of.
>>>
>>> After all, if the government thinks climate change is worth
>>> implementing cap and trade over, then it is important enough to let
>>> the public know how the models work.
>>>
>>> Thanks
>>> Greg
>>> _______________________________________________
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>>> Ale at ale.org
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>>> See JOBS, ANNOUNCE and SCHOOLS lists at
>>> http://mail.ale.org/mailman/listinfo
>>>
>>
>>
>>
>> --
>> --
>> James P. Kinney III
>> Actively in pursuit of Life, Liberty and Happiness
>>
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>
>
>
> --
> Greg Freemyer
> Head of EDD Tape Extraction and Processing team
> Litigation Triage Solutions Specialist
> http://www.linkedin.com/in/gregfreemyer
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>
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>

-- 
Greg Freemyer
Head of EDD Tape Extraction and Processing team
Litigation Triage Solutions Specialist
http://www.linkedin.com/in/gregfreemyer
Preservation and Forensic processing of Exchange Repositories White Paper -
<http://www.norcrossgroup.com/forms/whitepapers/tng_whitepaper_fpe.html>

The Norcross Group
The Intersection of Evidence & Technology
http://www.norcrossgroup.com